For July’s book club, we read The Hinge Factor: How Chance and Stupidity Have Changed History by Erik Durschmied. The book explores how seemingly small, unpredictable events often involving chance, error, or even stupidity, drastically altered the course of major historical events. The book argues that battles and conflicts are not solely decided by the brilliance of generals or the strength of armies, but are also were significantly influenced by what Durschmied calls the “hinge factor”.
While military history is in no way my typical fare, I enjoyed this book. Each chapter is in a sense standalone with all the pay off at the end when he walks through the what could have been if not for the “hinge factor”. What is probably least enjoyable about it is the lack of a takeaway chapter to chapter and the lack of value for human life.
If there are themes you can draw it is that unexpected factors, such as bad weather, miscommunication, or individual errors are far too often the reason why glory was attained…NOT the skills or lack thereof. Durschmied examines battles from the Trojan War to the Gulf War, showcasing how the hinge factor played a role in each.
What I enjoyed most was the challenge of traditional military narratives. By emphasizing the impact of chance and error, the book challenges the perception that military victories are solely the result of strategic brilliance. There is no consistent theme from the battles he selects: in some cases indecision saves the day, and in others decisiveness wins. The book is written in an engaging style, each chapter standing on its own, and what it lacks in greater context historically is something I found I wanted to follow up upon (lots of Wikipedia surfing and even a Great Courses set of follow ups to learn more).
The most interesting examples of battles that were subject to “the Hinge factor” included:
- The Battle of Agincourt: The muddy battlefield, a result of bad weather, hampered the French knights’ mobility, contributing to their defeat by the English archers
- The Battle of Waterloo: Napoleon’s failure to secure victory was partly attributed to the lack of nails for spiking cannons, preventing his artillery from being effective against Wellington’s forces
- The Battle of Balaclava: The disastrous Charge of the Light Brigade was the result of a poorly worded order, highlighting the dangers of miscommunication and stubbornness
- The Battle of Tannenberg: A slap in the face of a Russian officer by a German officer years before the battle indirectly influenced the outcome of the battle
- The Battle of Tanga: A swarm of angry bees caused the British forces to panic and retreat, demonstrating the impact of unexpected natural events.
I won’t say I’ll become an avid reader of military history, but this was a unique foray into the topic and I enjoyed it.